Are Condo prices down 48% in Park City?!
A stat made the rounds this fall claiming condo prices in part of the Park City market had dropped nearly half. Cue the "resort crash" takes. So I pulled the actual Q3 condo numbers across the entire Wasatch Back — Park City proper, Snyderville Basin, Kamas, Heber, and the Jordanelle — and the real story is much more interesting than the scary one.
Where the "-48%" comes from
When a small market's median swings wildly, the first suspect is never a collapse — it's mix. Medians measure what sold, not what homes are worth. If last year's sales included a run of $4M ski-access closings and this year's were dominated by $800K workforce condos, the median craters while not a single property lost half its value. That's precisely the anatomy of the headline number: a thin sample plus a product-mix shift at one end of the market. I walk through the specific case in the video — and it's a masterclass in why you never trade on a single quarter's median.
What Q3 actually showed, region by region
The genuine pattern across the Wasatch Back: softening at the luxury end, strength at the attainable end. Old Town condos held stable with solid demand for realistic pricing. Upper Deer Valley showed the classic split — a few big closings propping the average while the median sagged. The broader Park City condo picture eased as buyers rotated toward more affordable units; the Canyons followed the same script. Meanwhile the Jordanelle bucked it all — up roughly 4% on average and 6% on median, powered by East Village momentum and new product delivering. Heber and Kamas stayed the value story they've been all cycle.
The takeaway I'd actually trade on
Q3 was a buyer's window for ski condos — the segment where softness was real, sellers were negotiable, and the long-term drivers (finite supply near lifts, an Olympics runway, parking getting scarcer every season) hadn't changed a bit. Those windows close without a press release. And the broader lesson is permanent: in a non-disclosure state with thin micro-markets, headline percentages mislead constantly — the edge is knowing what actually closed, unit by unit. That data is exactly what I bring to the table.
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