Q4 Market Update: Are We in a Bubble?
First look at the Park City Q4 numbers, and… we're not slowing down. 2025 closed with $5.75 billion in total sales volume — the second-strongest year ever, trailing only the COVID boom. But the real story is underneath the headline: Park City isn't one market anymore. It's a collection of micro-markets, and Q4 proved it more than ever.
The big picture
Single-family home sales rose only 6% in quantity, but total volume jumped 26% — buyers are paying substantially more per home, with averages up nearly 18% and medians up 15% year-over-year. Condos show the same pattern, louder: 859 sold in 2025, down 9% in units, but volume jumped 20% on a 32% average price increase. Inventory is up 14%, the most since before COVID. And land tells its own story: quantity down 11%, but agents reported vacant lots in gated golf communities selling for $800K to $1 million more than comparable non-golf lots. Location, golf, ski access, and new construction are the price drivers now.
Watch out for skewed stats
Some of this quarter's data needs serious context before you draw conclusions:
- Deer Crest condos jumped from 5 to 53 sales — a +960% swing driven almost entirely by Founders Place closings averaging $5.5 million. That single development pushed the Park City limits condo median up 56% to nearly $2.5 million.
- Empire Pass single-family sales were up roughly 900% year-over-year off a tiny base.
- Canyons Village posted a $17 million average across 10 mega-homes on White Pine Canyon — a $170 million micro-market on its own, not a broad price trend.
- Upper Deer Valley showed just 4 single-family sales — pricing looks up 4%, but that sample tells us more about owners holding than about values moving.
Neighborhood by neighborhood
Among single-family markets: Park Meadows held steady at a $3.3M median across 35 sales — classic Park City, stable demand. Old Town moved 53 homes but saw some pricing pushback at a $3.4M median, likely tied to tight lots and older housing stock. Sun Peak was the underrated performer, up 42% to a $3.2M median on strong full-time demand. Silver Springs rose 10% to $2.4M with tight inventory, Jeremy Ranch climbed 12% to $2.1M on commuter demand, and Promontory dominated on volume with 111 sales at a $4.3M median — the slight price dip there reflects a broader mix of product selling, not weakness.
On the condo side, luxury held or climbed — Deer Crest up 27% to $5.2M, Empire Pass up 23% to $6.3M — while the affordable end felt pressure: Old Town condos slipped 8% to a $1.1M median, and Kimball Junction fell 11% to $740K as higher rates squeezed that buyer pool. The two zip codes are genuinely diverging: 84060 condos posted a big median gain on luxury turnover while 84098 softened 4%.
Jordanelle keeps building
The Jordanelle region logged 233 condo sales at a $2.1M median, with Hideout up 20% and Mayflower up 22% as the East Village expansion drives activity. Unit sales rose 25% with a 45% jump in volume, and the median out there just passed $4M for the first time. New construction now makes up roughly 60% of Jordanelle sales and 40% in the Heber Valley.
So — are we in a bubble?
Here's my honest read. Bubbles are built on leverage and speculation; this market is built on cash and scarcity. We are seeing some buyer fatigue at ultra-high price points and a touch of December softness — median single-family prices dipped 1.6% that month — but that reads seasonal, not structural. Existing homes alone rose over 14% year-over-year even with new builds stripped out, inventory is finally giving buyers real choices, and demand remains healthy. The late snow and rising insurance costs are worth watching for 2026 rental income, but the long-term picture holds.
The real risk isn't a bubble — it's reading Park City as one market and overpaying in the wrong micro-market. Whether you're buying, selling, or repositioning, understanding where and what you're looking at has never mattered more. The numbers matter — but so does the story behind them.
Thinking about buying, selling, or investing in Park City? Reach out anytime — call or text (801) 837-4445.